torsdag 1. april 2021

More extreme weather?

Misuse of statistics and causation is starting to get tiring now. One does not measure the severity of climate change and global warming  against "how many people die in natural disasters" alone. Nor in the number of extreme weather.

There is a significant difference most people do not notice.

Climate change does not create bad weather, extreme weather or natural disasters, but climate change exacerbates them.

https://climatecentre.org/news/1336/un-climate-related-disasters-increase-more-than-80-over-last-four-decades

https://phys.org/news/2018-05-powerful-hurricanes-faster-years.html#jCp

There is a global increase in the major tropical cyclones over the last 40 years - compared to accident statistics

Climate skeptics downplay global warming by referring to various graphs of the death toll from storms, floods and droughts over the past hundred years.

The interpretation of statistics on deaths / injuries as a result of natural disasters over time must take into account the following:

1. comprehensive individual disasters have a major impact on the statistics

2. the registration methods change

3. better weather forecast and more organized security / evacuation prevent loss of human life

4. better aid apparatus saves more after the disaster

5. the proportion of those living in large cities increases (less security in rural areas)

6. better infrastructure (roads, vehicles, power grids, telephone networks) saves more

7. the use of robust construction technology is increasing

8. better flood regulation of rivers and watercourses

Katharine Hayhoe:

“Hurricanes, tropical cyclones and typhoons aren’t getting more frequent, either: but they are getting stronger as they’re super-charged by warming oceans. They are also intensifying faster and getting bigger, slower, and with a lot more rain associated with them. It’s estimated that nearly 40% of the rain that fell during Hurricane Harvey would not have fallen if the exact same storm had occurred a hundred years ago.”



But it is sad if the progress of the planet's population over the last 40 years is to be eaten up by climate change that worsens living conditions. Large areas become uninhabitable as a result of drier climates, more frequent heat waves, more frequent floods, more frequent torrential rains, more hurricanes and higher water levels. It is great to be saved from the storm, but bitter to be saved for a life of poverty and homelessness.

Research shows an increase in powerful hurricanes. The warmer the seawater, the more stormy, because the amount of latent heat in the atmosphere increases through increased evaporation.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2709331

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/22/1197

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/08/us-2020-record-year-climate-disasters-wildfires-hurricanes?fbclid=IwAR1q-LedpFz_JGS8e8z3Wu4DXBKthN5zkr5JpDg6W_wGzUgG0_KVERj-AnU

"For thunderstorm-related losses the analysis reveals increasing volatility and a significant long-term upward trend in the normalized figures over the last 40 years. These figures have been adjusted to account for factors such as increasing values, population growth and inflation ... In all likelihood, we have to regard this finding as an initial climate-change footprint in our US loss data from the last four decades."

"Nowhere in the world is the rising number of natural catastrophes more evident than in North America. The study shows a nearly quintupled number of weather-related loss events in North America for the past three decades, compared with an increase factor of 4 in Asia, 2.5 in Africa, 2 in Europe and 1.5 in South America. Anthropogenic climate change is believed to contribute to this trend, though it influences various perils in different ways."




https://www.munichre.com/en/media-relations/publications/press-releases/2012/2012-10-17-press-release/index.html

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