torsdag 18. februar 2021

Forskere har i lengre tid vært klar over hvor raskt klimasystemet vil stoppe global oppvarming som svar på at vår forbrenning av fossile brensler opphører. / Scientists have been aware of how quickly the climate system will stop warming in response to a human cessation of the burning of fossil fuels for some time

The message hasn't penetrated deeply yet into a more broad understanding of the science yet, which is the fault of science communicators and news outlets, not climate scientists.

Scientists have been aware of how quickly the climate system will stop warming in response to a human cessation of the burning of fossil fuels for some time (prior to the AR5 back in 2013/2014).

Basically, warming is tied to our fossil fuel emissions.

When emissions stop, warming stops.

It can also be seen here, in Canada's Changing Climate Report for 2019 (page 98). Figure 3.9 (page 99) shows the persistence of elevated temperatures after emissions cease:

"regardless of when emissions cease, GMST remains approximately constant for the subsequent millennium"

https://changingclimate.ca/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/01/Figure-3.9-1.png

https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019

https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/downloads/

https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/graphics/

https://changingclimate.ca/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/CCCR_FULLREPORT-EN-FINAL.pdf

That's based on:

Gillett et al 2011 - Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions

https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1047

https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1047/figures/2

https://media.springernature.com/full/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fngeo1047/MediaObjects/41561_2011_Article_BFngeo1047_Fig2_HTML.jpg?as=webp

The AR5 showed that warming is (linearly) proportional to cumulative carbon emissions and is "independent of both the atmospheric CO2 concentration and its rate of change".  So when the bolus perturbation ends, the climate system quickly plateaus.  This means that negative feedbacks roughly cancel out positive ones from the Cryosphere, maintaining global temperatures.

Matthews et al 2009 - The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature08047

This article from Andy should be regarded as the go-to Skeptical Science article on the subject:

"It just so happens that the delayed heating from this [ocean] thermal inertia balances almost exactly with the drop in CO2 concentrations, meaning the temperature of the Earth would stay approximately constant from the minute we stopped adding more CO2"

https://skepticalscience.com//global-warming-not-reversible-but-stoppable.html

And from Michael Mann:

"Scientists used to “treat carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as if it was a simple control knob that you turn up” and temperatures climb accordingly, “but in the real world we now know that’s not what happens,” Mann said. Instead, if humans “stop emitting carbon right now … the oceans start to take up carbon more rapidly.” The actual lag effect between halting CO2 emissions and halting temperature rise, then, is not 25 to 30 years but, per Mann, “more like three to five years.”

In short, this game-changing new scientific understanding suggests that humanity can turn down the heat almost immediately by slashing heat-trapping emissions. “Our destiny is determined by our behavior,” said Mann"

https://www.cjr.org/covering_climate_now/michael-mann-60-minutes-emissions-warming.php

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/03012021/five-aspects-climate-change-2020/

MacDougall et al 2020 - Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2

https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/2987/2020/bg-17-2987-2020-discussion.html

https://globalchange.mit.edu/publication/17466





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