Some are still "under the mistaken impression that concern about global warming is based on climate models, which in reality play little role in our understanding -- our understanding is based mainly on how the Earth responded to changes of boundary conditions in the past and on how it is responding to on-going changes."
- Dr. James Hansen
Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures
1.That the globe would warm, and about how fast, and about how much.
2. That the troposphere would warm and the stratosphere would cool.
3. That nighttime temperatures would increase more than daytime temperatures.
4. That winter temperatures would increase more than summer temperatures.
5.Polar amplification (greater temperature increase as you move toward the poles).
6. That the Arctic would warm faster than the Antarctic.
7.The magnitude (0.3 K) and duration (two years) of the cooling from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption.
8.They made a retrodiction for Last Glacial Maximum sea surface temperatures which was inconsistent with the paleo evidence, and better paleo evidence showed the models were right.
9.They predicted a trend significantly different and differently signed from UAH satellite temperatures, and then a bug was found in the satellite data.
10.The amount of water vapor feedback due to ENSO.
11. The response of southern ocean winds to the ozone hole.
12.The expansion of the Hadley cells.
13.The poleward movement of storm tracks.
14.The rising of the tropopause and the effective radiating altitude.
15.The clear sky super greenhouse effect from increased water vapor in the tropics.
16.The near constancy of relative humidity on global average.
17.The expanded range of hurricanes and cyclones--a year before Cyclone Catarina showed up off the coast of Brazil, something which had never happened before.
Fns Klimapanels første modeller viste seg å stemme med senere observasjoner. For dem som vil lese mer: LiveScience bekrefter og modellene.
The First Climate Model Turns 50, And Predicted Global Warming Almost Perfectly
James Hansen wishes he wasn't so right about global warming
In recent years, some scientists have suggested that our climate models may actually be predicting too much future warming, and that climate change will be less severe than the projections suggest. But new research is helping lay these suspicions to rest.
What the scientists knew in 1982:
OVERDRIVER FORSKERNE OG SPÅR DE DOMMEDAGSSCENARIER?
Claims that the IPCC is alarmist are not supported by evidence, and there are clear indications that the opposite may be the case. "Numerous papers have documented how IPCC predictions are more likely to underestimate the climate response."