De som dør til kulde dør ikke fordi Jorden blir kaldere. De som dør til hetebølger dør fordi Jorden blir varmere. De fleste som dør til kulde dør om VINTEREN i varme land som Spania og Portugal. Fordi det er relatert til fattigdom/mangel på brensel mer enn klima. Mens Jorden blir varmere vil andelen som dør til hetebølger øke.
"We analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43–7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02–7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39–0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84–0·87) of total mortality."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)62114-0/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR0C8RI0v5h0EiN81QmmewLK6p0vT86cTsaeUy9Xluu7PPPOlCpyJ6vAdCQ
"The Office for National Statistics said that fluctuations in "excess" deaths are not correlated with cold winters, but with cold homes."
So is this just a case of bad weather? The graph gives away the first clue that it's not that simple. The countries with the highest 'seasonal variations' in deaths are Portugal and Spain, which hardly have the coldest climates on the list. Meanwhile northern European countries - Finland, Germany and the Netherlands - have comparatively few excess deaths.
The explanation for this is put down to differing levels of thermal efficiency. Warmer countries tended to have poorer standards of home insulation. Even looking at more recent figures for 2011, the case is similar: Scandinavian countries have high efficiency, Portugal and Spain less so.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1732295/pdf/v057p00784.pdf#page=2
Deadly heat waves becoming more common due to climate change
Deadly heat waves are going to be a much bigger problem in the coming decades, becoming more frequent and occurring over a much greater portion of the planet because of climate change, according to a study published last summer in Nature Climate Change.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/mar/17/deadly-heatwaves-europe
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/mar/17/deadly-heatwaves-europe
Extreme heat waves, such as the one torching the eastern United States, are frequently cited as one of the most direct effects of man-made climate change.
The study says, by the year 2100, three out of four people on Earth could be subject to at least 20 days per year of heat and humidity associated with deadly heat waves, if greenhouse emissions continue to rise at their current rates.
Up to 54 deaths linked to southern Quebec heat wave
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-heatwave/pakistan-heatwave-kills-65-people-in-karachi-welfare-organization-idUSKCN1IM2AU
- In Europe, heatwaves of the kind that occurred in 2003, killing more than 50,000 people, will become increasingly likely.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/06/how-to-talk-about-climate-change-5-tips-from-the-front-lines/
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/06/how-to-talk-about-climate-change-5-tips-from-the-front-lines/
https://forskning.no/klima-ntb/ekstrem-varme-tar-livet-av-tusenvis-av-hjemlose-arlig/2047133?fbclid=IwAR2IDGVMh6kH6ClmlMhk2aUp1-ZUZ5BmUD-3Mo4sA_-l7GEJnfsitWtt-DI
An estimated 9,000 people died last winter in England and Wales as a result of living in a cold home, a university study has suggested. It found a fifth of the 43,900 excess winter deaths in 2014-2015 were caused by low indoor temperatures, BBC Panorama has learned.Cold homes increase the risk of respiratory infections, heart attacks and strokes, the researchers said.
Dr Allen said the figure was a shocking indictment on the current levels of fuel poverty.The charity Age UK estimates that fuel poverty, where people cannot afford to heat their home, costs the NHS around £1.3bn every year.
In 2000, the government agreed a legally-binding objective to eradicate fuel poverty by 2016.
But the target has been missed and official figures show there are still five million people living in cold homes.
The government used to define a household as fuel poor if they spent more than 10% of their income on heating their home, but the government changed how it measured fuel poverty in England in 2013.
The criterion for fuel poverty in England is now based on whether heating a home to a decent standard would leave the household below the poverty line.
People with less money are more vulnerable as they may not be able to afford to heat their home or may live somewhere that’s harder to keep warm because it’s not well insulated. Caravans or mobile homes are particularly risky.
I expect some climate change deniers will leap on this result and suggest we shouldn’t worry about extreme heat since the cold is a bigger killer. But this argument doesn’t hold.
On the other hand, it seems very likely that a warmer world will reduce the number of deaths due to cold. I’ve sensed some resistance to this prediction among some researchers, perhaps because they are reluctant to admit any potential benefit of climate change because of the ammunition it gives to the deniers.
Of course, the reduction in winter deaths could be wiped out by an increase in heat-related deaths. In every country studied in the Lancet paper, there was an increased risk of death during hot weather. Plus we should also consider the predicted increases in vector, food and water borne diseases, and the potentially catastrophic increase in global conflicts.
Premature deaths from both the heat and the cold are big problems that deserve our attention.
Cold homes caused 9,000 deaths last winter, study suggests
An estimated 9,000 people died last winter in England and Wales as a result of living in a cold home, a university study has suggested. It found a fifth of the 43,900 excess winter deaths in 2014-2015 were caused by low indoor temperatures, BBC Panorama has learned.Cold homes increase the risk of respiratory infections, heart attacks and strokes, the researchers said.
Dr Allen said the figure was a shocking indictment on the current levels of fuel poverty.The charity Age UK estimates that fuel poverty, where people cannot afford to heat their home, costs the NHS around £1.3bn every year.
In 2000, the government agreed a legally-binding objective to eradicate fuel poverty by 2016.
But the target has been missed and official figures show there are still five million people living in cold homes.
The government used to define a household as fuel poor if they spent more than 10% of their income on heating their home, but the government changed how it measured fuel poverty in England in 2013.
The criterion for fuel poverty in England is now based on whether heating a home to a decent standard would leave the household below the poverty line.
People with less money are more vulnerable as they may not be able to afford to heat their home or may live somewhere that’s harder to keep warm because it’s not well insulated. Caravans or mobile homes are particularly risky.
I expect some climate change deniers will leap on this result and suggest we shouldn’t worry about extreme heat since the cold is a bigger killer. But this argument doesn’t hold.
On the other hand, it seems very likely that a warmer world will reduce the number of deaths due to cold. I’ve sensed some resistance to this prediction among some researchers, perhaps because they are reluctant to admit any potential benefit of climate change because of the ammunition it gives to the deniers.
Of course, the reduction in winter deaths could be wiped out by an increase in heat-related deaths. In every country studied in the Lancet paper, there was an increased risk of death during hot weather. Plus we should also consider the predicted increases in vector, food and water borne diseases, and the potentially catastrophic increase in global conflicts.
Premature deaths from both the heat and the cold are big problems that deserve our attention.
https://www.dagsavisen.no/nyheter/verden/2021/07/09/nesten-hvert-tiende-dodsfall-i-verden-skyldes-ekstreme-temperaturer/?fbclid=IwAR2Nc1CcZjEo4zlh5920rICADPbV5Zdj5Ge3nP445ig-1jCkeG89ik92xEM
Causes for the recent changes in cold- and heat-related mortality in England and Wales
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-009-9774-0
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)62114-0/fulltext
A study published last year in the journal WIRES Climate Change, however, lays out how the warming Arctic and melting ice appear to be linked to cold weather being driven farther south.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/why-climate-change-may-be-blame-dangerous-cold-blanketing-eastern-n834986
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wcc.474
https://twitter.com/ret_ward/status/1181132839854788608
Causes for the recent changes in cold- and heat-related mortality in England and Wales
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-009-9774-0
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)62114-0/fulltext
A study published last year in the journal WIRES Climate Change, however, lays out how the warming Arctic and melting ice appear to be linked to cold weather being driven farther south.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/why-climate-change-may-be-blame-dangerous-cold-blanketing-eastern-n834986
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wcc.474
https://twitter.com/ret_ward/status/1181132839854788608
IPCC:
«Studies in temperate areas have shown that climate change is projected to bring some benefits, such as fewer deaths from cold exposure. Overall it is expected that these benefits will be outweighed by the negative health effects of rising temperatures worldwide, especially in developing countries».
Det blir som å si at røyking ikke er farlig fordi flere dør av andre årsaker. Denne artikkelen sammenblander epler og appelsiner.
Dødsfallene pga oppvarming er relatert til klimaet, mens dødsfallene relatert til kulde er for det meste IKKE det. Et annet poeng er at global oppvarming forander værmønsterer og sender kaldt vær innover områder som ikke er vant til dette. Mange dødsfall pga kulde skyldes dermed global oppvarming.
Europa:
Landene med de høyeste 'sesongvariasjonene' i dødsfall er Portugal og Spania, som neppe har det kaldeste klimaet i Europa. Samtidig har nord -europeiske land - Skandinavia, Finland, Tyskland og Nederland - relativt få dødsfall. Fordi vi er rike og har gode isolerte hjem, dør ikke folk i kulden her.
Folk dør pga kalde hjem og "brenselfattigdom". Personer med mindre penger er mer sårbare, ettersom de kanskje ikke har råd til å varme opp hjemmet sitt eller er tvunget til å bo et sted der det er vanskeligere å holde varmen fordi det ikke er godt isolert. Campingvogner eller bobiler er spesielt risikofylte.
IPCC:
«Studies in temperate areas have shown that climate change is projected to bring some benefits, such as fewer deaths from cold exposure. Overall it is expected that these benefits will be outweighed by the negative health effects of rising temperatures worldwide, especially in developing countries».
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